Could the US election result be closer than you think?

We were commissioned by storytelling PR agency, Berkeley Communications, to look at the credibility of the two candidates in the US election, Donald Trump and Joe Biden (2020). We asked respondents to score each candidate out of ten for credibility, with 1 being ‘not credible at all’ and 10 being ‘very credible’.

With offices in the UK, Germany and locally in the US, Berkeley Communications wanted to see if there was any difference in opinions in each of its local markets. The insight gleamed from surveying 6,000 consumers (2,000 respondents per country) paints a picture of a closer race than many Europeans would likely predict.

For the purpose of this survey, we defined credible as ‘able to be believed or trusted.’

When we look at the net credible score across all countries for Joe Biden, he scores 41% while Donald Trump has a net credible score of 25%. This feels like a sizable gap and presents a picture of a clear winner.

It gets worse for Trump when you review the European results individually. Looking at the German figures we see nearly four in ten (39%) believe that Biden is credible compared to 12% for Trump. Likewise, in the UK 39% of respondents view Biden as credible with just 19% believing Trump is credible.

A clear winner then you would say. Maybe not. The stark reality is that neither Germans or Brits will be voting in this week’s election. Americans will be. So how did the scores look there?

In the US, Biden’s net credibility score was 44% compared to Trump’s net credibility score of… 44%.

It will be intriguing to see how credibility turns into votes as the results come in.

Research methodology

The Berkeley credibility gauge was conducted in September 2020. We surveyed 6,000 general population adults aged 18+. Respondents came from the US (2,000 respondents), UK (2,000 respondents), and Germany (2,000 respondents).